《未来简史》节译:卡尔.马克思的失算

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《未来简史》节译:卡尔.马克思的失算

This isnot a hypothetical example. In the middle of the nineteenth century Karl Marx reached brillianteconomic insights. Based on these insightshe predicted an increasingly violent conflictbetween the proletariat and the capitalists, ending with the inevitable victoryof the former and the collapse of the capitalist system.Marx wascertain that the revolution would start in countriesthat spearheaded the Industrial Revolution – such as Britain, France and the USA – and spread to the restof the world.

这并非是一个虚构的案例。十九世纪中叶,卡尔.马克思在经济学领域取得了卓越的见解,并据此预测工人阶级与资产阶段之间的矛盾冲突将愈演愈烈,并不可避免地以前者的胜利和资本主义体系的崩坍而告终。马克思同时确信,革命将从工业革命的先导国家,比如英国、法国和美国首先爆发,最终席卷全球。


Marx forgotthat capitalists know how to read. At firstonly a handfulof disciples took Marx seriously and read his writings. But as these socialistfirebrands gained adherents and power, thecapitalists became alarmed. They too perusedDas Kapital,adopting many of the tools and insightsof Marxist analysis. In the twentieth century everybody from street urchinsto presidentsembraced a Marxist approach to economics and history. Even diehard capitalists who vehemently resisted the Marxist prognosis still made use of the Marxistdiagnosis. When the CIAanalysed the situation in Vietnam or Chile in the 1960s, it divided society into classes. When Nixon or Thatcher looked at the globe, they asked themselves who controls the vital means ofproduction. From 1989 to 1991 George Bush oversaw the demise of the Evil Empire of communism, only to be defeated in the 1992 elections by Bill Clinton. Clinton’s winning campaignstrategy was summarised in the motto: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’Marx could not have said it better.

然而,马克思忘了一件事——资本家也会读书。起初只是少部分忠实的信徒追随马克思并阅读他的著作。但是随着这些社会主义的吹鼓手获得越来越多的追随者和权力,资本家们开始警觉起来了。他们也开始细读《资本论》,并采用了马克思创造的许多分析工具和理论。到了19世纪,更是从街头的青年到总统都广泛接受了马克思在政治和经济领域的分析方法,即便是对马克思预测最为抵触的死硬资本家们事实上也在应用马克思的方法。甚至美国中央情报局在分析60年代越南和智利的局势时,也应用了马克思的阶级分析法。当年尼克松和撒切尔夫人在审视全球局势时,也不得不自问究竟是谁掌握了最根本的生产方式。从1989年到1991年,老布什亲眼目睹着邪恶的苏联帝国走向分崩离析,但仍然无法避免在1992年连任选举中被比尔.克林顿击败。克林顿的胜选策略其实就是他的竞选口号“笨蛋,问题在于经济”——老天!哪怕是马克思本人,也不见得能说得比这更漂亮了。


As people adopted the Marxistdiagnosis, they changed their behaviour accordingly. Capitalists in countriessuch as Britain and France strove to better the lot of the workers, strengthentheir national consciousness and integrate them into the political system. Consequently when workersbegan voting in electionsand Labour gained power in one country after another, thecapitalists could still sleep soundly in their beds. As a result, Marx’spredictions came to naught. Communist revolutions never engulfedthe leading industrial powers such as Britain,Franceand the USA, and the dictatorship of the proletariat was consigned to the dustbin of history.

当人们普遍采信了马克思主义,也就随之改变了他们的行为方式。英、法诸国的资本家们开始着手改善工人们的境遇,强化其国家和民族意识,并让他们参与政治。结果虽然工人们纷纷参与选举投票,各国工党也轮番上台执政,资本家们却仍然可以高枕无忧。最终,马克思的预言落空,共产主义革命并没能摧毁英、法、美这些资本主义世界的领头羊,所谓的无产阶级专政也就被扔进了历史的垃圾箱。


This is the paradoxof historical knowledge. Knowledge that does not change behaviouris useless. But knowledgethat changes behaviour quickly loses its relevance. The more data wehave and the better we understand history, the faster history alters its course, and the faster our knowledge becomes outdated

这就是所谓历史知识的悖论。无法改变大众行为方的知识是无用的知识,但是当某一项知识一旦改变了大众的行为,该知识本身就失去其曾有的准确性。掌握的数据越多,对于历史的理解越透彻,历史的轨迹改变得也就越快,相应的我们的知识也就过时得越快。


来自:郑梁的译言堂的博客